4 March 2002:
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Sergei Gonchar congratulates Jaromir Jagr after the
latter scores in overtime, Saturday night in Ottawa. |
Ten at a Time
by fjc33
A season in any sport is made up of a collection of pieces and slices; of streaks good and bad. Some coaches evaluate their teams in terms of 10-game sets and that seems a useful way to look at a team's recent performance. In hockey, these 10-game sets are particularly useful in evaluating a team insofar as there is a ready-made formula for success. If you win 12 points in each set over eight sets (80 games), and win the two odd games, you end up with 100 points.
The Washington Capitals just completed their sixth 10-game set of the season, broken up by the two week Olympic break. It was a decent stretch for the Caps and for certain players in particular. The Caps garnered 12 points in the stretch, going 5-3-1-1, scoring 28 goals and yielding the same number. They closed the 10-game set 4-0-1-0, positioning themselves for what Caps fans hope will be a successful sprint to the finish of the regular season and a playoff berth. Compared to the fifth 10-game set, when the Caps scored 19 and yielded 29 goals in going 3-6-1-0, the Caps have clearly been a much improved team. Part of this "improvement" reflects playing Atlanta, Minnesota, Tampa Bay (twice) and Florida, but this isn't the Bowl Championship Series, and a team doesn't get extra points for the quality of competition.
Individually among the Caps, it was Jaromir Jagr and Adam Oates leading the team in scoring, going 4-9-13 and 3-9-12, respectively. They have achieved a nice chemistry between them, although the looming trading deadline is fueling rumors once more that Oates will be wearing a different uniform. Ulf Dahlen (5-3-8), Sergei Gonchar (1-7-8), Peter Bondra (2-5-7) made up the rest of the top five in Caps scoring over the last 10 games. The surprise, however, was newcomer Colin Forbes, who went 3-2-5, +1 in primarily third and fourth line duty.
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Capitals defenseman Sylvain Cote lays into a hit
on Ottawa's Chris Neil on Saturday. |
The success the Caps had in this stretch was produced in ways contrary to the strengths and *weaknesses of the team. For instance, the Caps power play had been humming along at more than 20 percent this season. However, in these 10 games, the Caps mustered only a 14.8 percent success rate, going 4-27. At even strength, though, the team showed improvement, especially among their top players. Oates and Brendan Witt finished +3 for the 10 games, Jagr and Bondra each finished a +1. All four of these key players had been on the minus side of the ledger coming into these games. All the news here is not good, though. Andrei Nikolishin, who started the season strongly, finished 0-1-1, -5 in these 10 games and has slipped to playing mostly on the fourth line.
The Caps rely on face-offs for much of their set offense. Success here has been a constant over the past couple of seasons, and it continued in the recent stretch of games. The team won 53 percent of its draws in the last 10, off from 58 percent in the previous 10. Adam Oates continued his mastery of this facet of the game, winning 55 percent of his draws, but the surprise was Dmitri Khristich. Converted to center due to the absence of Jeff Halpern (lost for the season with a knee injury), Khristich won 63 of 105 draws (60 percent).
The Caps have not been an overly physical team this year, falling in the lower half of the league standings in hits. However, the past 10 games saw an increase in this statistic (187 versus 170 in the previous 10). Witt and Matt Pettinger led the team with 25 and 24, respectively. However, the increase could be attributed to newcomers Forbes and defensemen Todd Rohloff and J.F. Fortin, who contributed 37 hits among them.
If there is a statistic that should cause concern, it is the takeaway/giveaway ratio. The Caps have been plagued all season by a propensity to cough up the puck, and it continued unabated in the most recent 10 games. The team yielded 141 giveaways, 11 more than they suffered in the previous 10 against stronger competition. On the other side, they had only 80 takeaways, four fewer than the previous 10 games. As the team gears up for that daunting eight-game road trip later this month, this seems a trend the Caps need to correct.
Goaltending remained a constant, having yielded one fewer goal (28) in the most recent 10 than in the previous 10. Olaf Kolzig was 3-3-0-1, while Craig Billington filled in for three games and went 2-0-1-0. Both netminders improved their save percentage over the previous 10 games, but frankly, 28 goals yielded is still something of a high number in this era of the NHL. The Caps did give up a paltry 10 goals in the last five of these games, but the competition was Minnesota, Nashville, Tampa (twice), and Florida, none of whom will ever be confused with the Edmonton Oilers of the 1980's.
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Olaf Kolzig denies Ottawa Senators captain Daniel
Alfredsson, as Adam Oates looks on. |
Statistics do not paint a complete picture, and no single stat is indicative of how the team is playing. But the results do point to certain welcome and not-so-welcome trends. First, the team appears to be playing with a greater sense of urgency. While still not to be confused with the more rugged teams of the NHL, they are hitting with more frequency and they are giving themselves up more (an 18 percent increase in blocked shots in these 10 games over the previous 10). Second, the team is getting stronger play from its key people . . . Jagr, Oates, Bondra, and Gonchar were a combined 10-30-40, +5, in the latest 10 games versus 8-13-21, -12 in the previous 10 games. Third, the team still has trouble with puck possession, which is probably the biggest influence on the team's rather high GAA (as opposed to poor goaltender play). Fourth, the infusion of Colin Forbes, J.F. Fortin, and Todd Rohloff has provided a bit of a positive jolt to the team . . . they hit, they add some speed, and Forbes has chipped in some timely offense.
The Caps are playing better than they have at virtually any point of the season, save for opening night. They've done it against weaker competition, but that's what good teams have to do . . . win the games they are supposed to win. As the competition heats up, the Caps take the road, and the regular season winds down, it will be a struggle for the team, but interesting to watch as the Caps try to climb into the playoffs in the last 22 games.
fjc33
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