9 April 2002:
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What supporting cast will winger Peter Bondra and
the Capitals' stars have next season in Washington? |
Capitals: Summer School
by btmarshall
The Washington Capitals are poised for a busy summer, on the verge of just missing the playoffs after a season that began with lofty expectations. Following the trade of center Adam Oates, they have neither true first nor second line scoring centers. The blueline corps consists of a number of minor league players populating the team's top eight defensemen. At wing, the Caps have two star scoring snipers, but beyond that, a number of aging and overpaid role players. What holes has GM George McPhee publicly targeted for improvement?
Scoring line center.
Scoring line winger.
Young, physical defenseman.
First, McPhee will almost certainly target 6' 4" UFA center New Jersey center Bobby Holik, as the team's top two-way center for the next five years, to anchor the second line, with Peter Bondra on the wing. The team may also elect to permanently transform 6' 4", 225-pound power forward Dainius Zubrus into Jaromir Jagr's center. Those moves would fill the team's stated goals to add size and scoring at center, although it will open up a hole at wing for the team's scoring lines.
There are a number of top UFA wingers available this summer, and a limited number of teams with the salary structure to pay them. A perennial player in the free agent sweepstakes, the NY Rangers, already acquired Pavel Bure and his $10 million/yr salary. It remains to be seen whether they will seek to add another marquee winger, or release winger Thoeren Fleury. Players with 30 plus goals and 80-point potential are available, such as Tony Amonte, Bill Guerin, Teemu Selanne and possibly Thoeren Fleury are available.
What follows is a mix of predictions and suggestions for the Caps this summer:
1. Build from within.
How so? Play three and as many as four youngsters in the lineup next season. J. F. Fortin, Nolan Yonkman and rookie Brian Sutherby should get regular assignments next season. Depending on the team's moves in the off-season, a rookie winger could also crack the lineup. Bank on Mike Farrell or perhaps Roman Tvrdon to improve their chances to make the club.
Sutherby will likely start out as a 4th line center, but expect him to move up quickly if he can prove he belongs. He might even find himself playing at scoring-line wing, to gain increased ice time.
2. Continue the Dainius Zubrus at center experiment.
Dainius Zubrus is huge, feisty, extremely fast, creative, a strong passer, cut from the power forward cloth. He has demonstrated chemistry with Jaromir Jagr, and boasts assorted other tools. He is also has a terrible shot.
Zubrus had a two-goal game late this season. He scored the first goal after poking in a loose puck on the goal line, and the second on an empty net. His shot is clearly the weak link in his game. So far Zubrus is a playmaker, not a scorer, at least not yet. Using him as Jagr's center makes sense, until he can find his shot.
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Will Brendan Witt and Colin Forbes be with the
Washington Capitals next season? |
3. Trade for NYI winger Brad Isbister.
The Capitals are stocked with high draft picks, and can be expected to move some of them for help with scoring or defense.
One asset the Caps have targeted is a big, mean, scoring power forward. To do so, it might be worth dangling team co-captain Brendan Witt. Following a sub-par season, the Capitals defenseman still has high trade value in the league, a trade value that may only depreciate as time passes.
The Capitals might be able to trade Brendan Witt and a second round pick to the NY Islanders for Brad Isbister. Isbister is a budding power forward, but unlike Shane Doan in Phoenix, Isbister has not broken through yet as a scoring force. Still, teams seldom trade power forward material. Why would the Islanders pull off this deal? Expect the Isles' billionaire ownership group to pursue one of wingers Bill Guerin, Tony Amonte or Teemu Selanne. Such a signing would make Isbister available.
(Thanks to Nomad to raising the idea to land Isbister. Note: There is zero chance that Phoenix winger Shane Doan will go anywhere this summer. He will be a Coyote for years. Sorry, man. McPhee would have as much luck inquiring about the rights to Jarome Iginla…)
4. Package a prospect, picks and players for the #1 overall draft pick.
This one has quite a few maybes attached to it, granted. Figure that Atlanta finishes last in the NHL and wins the draft lottery. GM Don Waddell has indicated that he is willing to trade his club's 1st round pick for help.
Caps trade: Andrei Nikolishin, Maxime Ouellet, and Capitals' 1st-round pick(s).
Atlanta trades: #1 overall pick, and RW Lubos Bartecko.
Total shot in the dark, but this would give the Thrashers some desperately-needed help for the present, a goalie for a couple of years down the line, and a first round pick to compensate for the first round pick they send to the Caps. The Caps get to select a franchise defenseman. Will this happen? It is possible, though not necessarily likely. Nomad also suggested a Ouellet for Bouwmeester scenario off-hand at one point in the past, but I thought it made some sense, and so dusted this one off.
5. Jump into free agency: Sign Bobby Holik and Darius Kasparatis.
Holik will earn $8 million/yr somewhere, and sign a five-year, $40 million contract.
Kasparaitis will probably net himself a cool $3 million/yr.
Are these players worth that kind of money? No, in both cases. Yet Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) always earn more than their worth, and these two players would substantially improve the Capitals' defensive woes. Holik is arguably the best defensive and shadowing center in the NHL, and a playoff performer. Kaspairatis is regularly in the top five players in the NHL in hits, and is universally reviled around the league as an instigator.
The Lithuanian defenseman is no Ray Bourque. He commits errors of judgement, and will take himself out of the play at times to make a hit, it is true. Yet Kasparaitis would add veteran savvy and a physical dimension to the blueline, which the Caps sorely need. Should the Caps find the $11 million/yr or so to add these two players, the steep investment would very likely bear fruit.
The fact is that Washington is a lean organization, and has few assets with which to fill needs in trades, without creating further holes. They need to fill some of their requirements through free agency, and this could be the year the Capitals dive into the market.
6. Give Jeff Halpern another chance. Re-sign Ulf Dahlen.
Jeff Halpern has to be a strong #3 checking center for the Caps to be successful, at least until Brian Sutherby matures as an NHL center. Regardless of his season in 2001-02, the organization can not give up on Halpern just yet. There is simply no one else ready to step in, and Halpern has nearly no trade value following an extremely disappointing season.
Ulf Dahlen had a great run at one point this season, and if he is willing, signing him to a mid-level contract makes sense, and spreads out the scoring. The team will likely try to sign him, and reunite the much-heralded 22-11-10 line.
Incidentally, trading Steve Konowalchuk is the single most bone-headed proposal voiced by fans this season. Fortunately, management is determined that Konowalchuk will stay, to anchor the third line. He will likely be the Capitals' lone captain next season, whether Witt remains with the team or not.
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Young J. F. Fortin will assume a larger role with the
Caps next season, as veteran defensemen depart. |
7. Clean house among other bubble players.
Trade, buy out, release and/or demote, Andrei Nikolishin, Chris Simon, Glen Metropolit, Dmitri Khristich, Colin Forbes, Joe Sacco, Rob Zettler, Sylvain Cote, and Benoit Hogue.
Of these players, only Niko has a strong case to remain. He stays if the team cannot acquire a big game center over the summer. If a 20- to 25-minute center arrives, however, Nikolishin loses out in a numbers game. Sutherby is ready to earn a center slot, while Jeff Halpern is expected to be healthy yet again, and needs ice time to regain his form.
Nikolishin has a strong defensive game and faceoff prowess, two attributes that will be very attractive to many NHL teams. Packaged with a high draft pick (of which the Caps have many this season) he could help to land a scoring winger, rising power forward, or defensive help. Chris Simon is a big forward with an intimidation factor, should net the Capitals a decent pick - second or third round, perhaps.
There are a myriad of bubble players who try very hard for the Capitals, but simply come up short in terms of skill. In this category can be included Glen Metropolit, Colin Forbes, the Ferraro brothers, Trent Whitfield, and arguably Matt Pettinger. Pettinger will likely remain with the club as a 4th liner, or as a fill-in. The others should not come back from Portland except in emergencies.
8. Retain GM George McPhee and Head Coach Ron Wilson.
Pick up a hockey magazine or log onto hockey analysis websites, and nine out of ten hockey minds say that Ron Wilson is not responsible for the collapse of the Capitals this season. Most analysts regrettably expect Wilson to be fired; expect the analysts to be surprised. Neither McPhee nor Leonsis appear disenchanted with Wilson, and he is likely to stay with the club.
Go ahead and hire Ken Hitchcock, and be prepared to alienate players AND fans alike. Hire Ted Nolan, and watch the team become a disgrace both on AND off the ice. Wilson can coach, and he deserves to return behind the bench.
In slightly more than one year, George McPhee has turned 39-year-old Adam Oates, Richard Zednik, Jan Bulis, and three junior prospects into Jaromir Jagr, Dainius Zubrus, Maxime Ouellet, two #1 picks, a #2 pick and a #3 pick. That is improvement. McPhee is not making knee-jerk reaction trades, and he is drafting well, deftly balancing the need to stock the farm with the need to trade top prospects, in return for proven value. George McPhee is running the Capitals very well, and the organization is lucky to have him. Other teams would sign him in a heartbeat to run their clubs.
The organization should re-sign both of them, to long-term deals.
Off-Season Summary
Play youngsters J.F. Fortin, Nolan Yonkman, and Brian Sutherby.
Keep Dainius Zubrus at center, and drill him in faceoffs and shooting.
Trade Brendan Witt and a second-round pick to the NYI for Brad Isbister.
Trade Andrei Nikolishin, Maxime Ouellet, and a first-round pick to Atlanta for the #1 overall pick. Select Jay Bouwmeester in the draft.
Sign Bobby Holik and Darius Kasparaitis.
Commit to Jeff Halpern as #3 center, re-sign Ulf Dahlen, reunite 22-11-10 line.
Clean house.
Give George McPhee and Ron Wilson some job security. They deserve praise.
Will all this happen? Certainly not. I have the suspicion the Caps might be eyeing Teemu Selanne as a UFA signing, if he is available. That might eat up George McPhee's free agency allowance in a hurry. Call it a hunch... That said, there are rumors that the San Jose Sharks may try to sign Teemu Selanne long-term, before the playoffs even begin.
Both Holik and Kasparaitis will be (1) highly courted, and (2) worth less than their ultimate contract amounts, due to the high level of demand out there. The wealthy Stars, Flyers, Blues, and NY Islanders organizations alone will ensure that both players earn at least that amount of money in 2002-03, never mind the interest of the Avalanche and Red Wings.
These are perfectly legitimate reasons why the Capitals might balk. Even should the Capitals go for it, however, either player might already have a preference to sign elsewhere.
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Mr. McPhee? Sign Bobby Holik, and I'll be your
best friend... |
Alternatives to Bobby Holik?
Bobby Holik may be too rich for the Capitals. What alternatives exist to fill the center position? The Capitals have tons of picks, and the Tampa Bay Lightning continue to have problems with franchise center Vincent LeCavalier. It would not be surprising to see the Capitals try to swing a deal for the Lightning center before Draft Day this summer.
Robert Lang is also due to be a free agent center this summer, though he would be less than an ideal fit, and will still cost $4 million/yr or more.
In any event, the Capitals will bring in a scoring-line center this summer, whether by trade or through free agency. They have no choice.
It is almost guaranteed that most of these moves will not happen. THAT prediction is assured, at any rate. McPhee likes to catch everyone napping in trades, with a whopper that nobody sees coming until the moment of its announcement. That said, here is a possible starting lineup for next season, with Sutherby expected to move up rapidly from fourth-line center duty, and Bouwmeester likely to crack the roster as a precocious 18-year-old rookie. A decidedly raw team.
2002-03 Lineup
Brad Isbister - Dainius Zubrus - Jaromir Jagr
Lubos Bartecko - Bobby Holik - Peter Bondra
Steve Konowalchuk - Jeff Halpern - Ulf Dahlen
Matt Pettinger - Brian Sutherby - Stephen Peat / Portland call-ups
Calle Johansson - J. F. Fortin
Sergei Gonchar - Darius Kasparaitis
Jay Bouwmeester - Nolan Yonkman
Olaf Kolzig
Craig Billington
Here is another, because you can't always get what you want.
Brian Sutherby - Dainius Zubrus - Jaromir Jagr
Peter Bondra - Andrei Nikolishin - Teemu Selanne
Steve Konowalchuk - Jeff Halpern - Ulf Dahlen
Chris Simon - Colin Forbes - Matt Pettinger / Stephen Peat
Calle Johansson - Brendan Witt
J. F. Fortin - Sergei Gonchar
Ken Klee - Sylvain Cote / Nolan Yonkman
Olaf Kolzig
Craig Billington
Projection?
To be successful, first and foremost the Capitals will need to stay healthy - that stands to reason. Next, the 22-11-10 line needs to be dominant again, and capable of playing 20 solid minutes a night. The defensive core of this team was absent this season, and Wilson, Halpern, Konowalchuk and Dahlen need to find that groove once more. With added scoring, the Caps no longer require that the third line play a critical goal-scoring role, but the checking line does need to play solid defense, through old-fashioned puck possession and cycling.
The team needs a thorough overhaul at center, preferably by adding a mean 6' 4" veteran (Holik) and a 6' 3" rookie (Sutherby) in the off-season. Finally, the defense and goaltending must simply be a lot better next season than they were in 2001-02. Fortin and Yonkman appear to be ready for a full season, which is very promising. The Caps need to add at least one more player to the blueline, notwithstanding. Kolzig was mediocre early this season, and must earn his $6 million/yr salary next year.
Around the NHL
Playoff Predictions
Only a fool would make playoff predictions before the standings are even set, but so be it. Here goes.
Eastern Conference:
1. Boston Bruins
2. Philadelphia Flyers
3. Carolina Hurricanes
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
5. Ottawa Senators
6. NY Islanders
7. New Jersey Devils
8. Montreal Canadiens
First Round:
Bruins - Canadiens. Bruins in five.
Flyers - Devils. Devils in seven.
Hurricanes - Islanders. Islanders in six.
Maple Leafs - Senators. Maple Leafs in five.
Second Round:
Bruins - Devils. Devils in seven.
Islanders - Maple Leafs. Islanders in six.
Conference Finals:
Devils - Islanders. Devils in six.
Western Conference:
1. Detroit Red Wings
2. Colorado Avalanche
3. San Jose Sharks
4. Los Angeles Kings
5. Chicago Blackhawks
6. St. Louis Blues
7. Phoenix Coyotes
8. Vancouver Canucks
First Round:
Red Wings - Canucks. Red Wings in four.
Avalanche - Coyotes. Avalanche in six.
Sharks - Blues. Blues in seven.
Kings - Blackhawks. Kings in five.
Second Round:
Red Wings - Blues. Blues in seven.
Avalanche - Kings. Kings in six.
Conference Finals:
Blues - Kings. Blues in seven.
Stanley Cup Finals:
Devils - Blues. Blues in six.
Conn Smythe Trophy: Al MacInnis.
Crazy? Perhaps. Among the hottest teams in the NHL right now are the Los Angeles Kings. Implausible as it may be, they are poised to score an upset over the reloading Avalanche.
And St. Louis? Call it a hunch. With Doug Weight and Keith Tkachuk back in the lineup and healthy, St. Louis should find itself right back in the Cup hunt, capable of downing the Sharks, Red Wings and Kings. The Blues have the gritty role players, and newly acquired speedy scoring center Ray Ferraro to complement the scorers. Needless to say, they have the stars on defense. It will be up to the goaltending of untested #1 goaltender Brent Johnson to carry the team. For having the best-constructed playoff team entering the season, the Blues may finally win the organization's first Stanley Cup. They look admittedly very shaky right now, but I suspect that will change in the post-season.
- btmarshall
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